Champions League Markets on Polymarket

Knockout ties bring two-market shapes the league phase does not: the per-match winner and the two-legged qualifier line that prices across both legs. Around them sit the same over/under, exact-score, corners, and cards shapes that dominate the overall catalog at 372k, 58k, 57k, and 56k markets respectively.

The qualifier lines are the distinctive dataset — a price that lives across matchdays and settles once both legs conclude, which makes them the honest two-state study object for multi-leg settlement.

A qualifier market prices both legs into one probability, so its book is unusually continuous: it shoulders the first-leg shock on a single evening and spends the return leg converging. 16.9% of 5-minute snapshots across the archive are one-sided, and knockout qualifiers are exactly where such thinness concentrates between leg one and leg two.

Studying the archive at 250ms across a tie shows the intra-leg drift and the inter-leg anchor separately, which is the resolution coarse daily closes cannot produce.

An away-goal-first-leg underdog rips the qualifier line from 0.72 to 0.41 in the same minute the goal is scored; the book reprints, the top-of-book depth shifts sides, and the return leg opens with the market still recovering. Rows at 250ms preserve the reprint time to the second.

The same fixture's over/under line, meanwhile, behaves as a step function across scoring events — a different statistical signature entirely, visible in the same query.

Group-stage fixtures in off-peak kickoffs can book thin; the semis and final do not, and those are where recorded depth gets studied hardest. Treat one-sided snapshots as the venue's normal rather than an error — the honest edge on UCL is reading when the qualifier line reprices faster than the market believes.

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