Polymarket Order Book Depth, Explained

Polymarket Order Book Depth, Explained

Depth is size at a price: how many contracts rest at each level. On Polymarket, it is the leading indicator — measured events show depth leaving before price moves — and the part most price feeds throw away.

Figures measured as of 2026-10-02 on the published PolyOrderbooks archive.

Anatomy

What depth is made of

  • Top-of-book depth: contracts at the best bid and best ask — what you can hit first.
  • Ladder depth: contracts at each level below the top, in ticks (35–36 levels per side measured on sports).
  • Depth imbalance: bid-to-ask size ratio at the inside levels.
  • Crossed depth: levels where a bid exceeds an ask, marking fast repricing.

Signal

Depth moves first

The measured record is consistent: in the August 23 event, five crypto markets hit lower bounds within 26 seconds while depth was leaving and inverting ahead of the prints; in the ETH study, bid depth fell 96% and ask depth rose almost sixfold before the price caught up. Depth is the conference, price is the press release.

At settlement the same pattern appears at scale: the winning side accumulates 42,000+ shares at a fixed 0.99 while the losing book empties. The depth story is decided before the resolution print.

Use

Using depth in research and backtests

  • Compute usable depth: size at your price level on your side — the realistic fill size.
  • Track imbalance thresholds as long-horizon signals; the archive shows them persisting longer than price moves.
  • Replay fills against the recorded ladder instead of the mid, so partial fills and slippage are modeled, not assumed.
  • Detect inversions by flagging crossed rows, which are preserved in the data as the defect they are.

Practices

The workout

  • For one market, pull the full frame list at 250ms for an hour and count the distinct levels per side (sports: 35–36; Up/Down: variable) — depth begins as a level count.
  • Compute per-frame top-of-book sizes and their median; compare to the median trade size (42,254); the ratio shows how far one trade reaches into the book.
  • On a reprice window, measure per-side depth change; ETH's measured −96% bid / +491% ask on August 23 is the canonical depth redistribution to reproduce.
  • Label each frame as two-sided or one-sided; a depth claim that ignores one-sidedness is a claim about half the book.

Deeper

The measured reality

Depth is the multi-level face of the book: the level count defines the ladder, the sizes define reach, and the one-sided share defines reactivity — the three together, not any one, describe Polymarket depth.

The measured depth behavior — sports ladders steady at 35–36 levels per side, Up/Down ladders compressible to a single level near resolution, and depth that redistributes violently during repricings — is the venue's actual depth profile, and the archive is where it becomes a query.

A depth profile is three columns: levels per side, median top size, and the one-sided share. Compute them per market, print them side by side, and the nine-in-ten one-sided reality stops being a claim and becomes a table.

The depth summary worth publishing is therefore small and dense: one-sided share, median top-of-book size per side, and the executable side label, each computed from a stated window. That table reproduces from raw frames in one query and makes every later claim about liquidity checkable against the same numbers.

Conclusion

The honest takeaway

Depth is the book's three-dimensional view: levels, sizes, and sides.

One-sidedness makes per-side depth the only honest measure; aggregate "depth" hides the venue's defining trait.

Reprice windows are where depth becomes flow — the −96/+491 swing is the same event from two sides, and the archive stores both.

Where it fits

Place in the stack

Depth is the sizes layer of the book: levels, sizes, and sides all stay distinct in this page, which makes it the reference for the liquidity page.

It backs the depth-data page and the market-making page; both cite the measured per-side redistribution during reprises.

The one-sided share is the column that connects depth work to the venue's defining trait.

Keep it simple

The takeaway in two sentences

Depth is levels, sizes, and sides; one-sidedness is the third of those and the easiest to forget.

Measure per-side depth and never let an aggregate number hide the venue's defining trait.

FAQ

What is top-of-book depth?

The number of contracts resting at the best bid and best ask. It is the first row of usable liquidity and the smallest part of what a full ladder records.

Does depth predict Polymarket price moves?

Measured repricing events show depth leaving and inverting before the price does — the 26-second and same-second studies are built on that sequence.

How many price levels should I record?

All of them. Sports ladders here carry 35–36 levels per side; recording the full ladder keeps every level available for later study at no extra capture cost.