Polymarket Price Gaps, Explained
Polymarket Price Gaps, Explained
Gaps on a Polymarket chart cause the most misread trades on the platform. Many are not missing information — they are missing levels: a book so empty the mid jumps across a chasm of nothing.
Figures measured as of 2026-10-02 on the published PolyOrderbooks archive.
Gap types
What a gap can be
- Information gaps — a real repricing event in one tick (the strike ladder reprice moving rungs 0.044 to 0.996 in one second).
- Book gaps — a level vanishes, leaving a 99.6-cent-wide empty grid across the midpoint while the true price is unchanged.
- Resolution gaps — the settle jump to 0.99/0.01, terminal by design, unreadable as a trading signal.
- Opening gaps — thin pre-event books with wide level spacing around the open.
Measured
Two gaps on the same ladder
A measured BTC strike ladder repriced from 0.044 to 0.996 in a single second — that is information, and it happened on the whole ladder at once, which only full-book capture could show.
The same measurement recorded a 99.6-cent hole in the middle: the mid moved to 0.4995 and 0.500 not because the market repriced but because the adjacent levels were empty. An analyst charting mids sees a 50-cent move; a book reader sees the ladder intact with one empty rung.
Read
Reading gaps correctly
- Always check the book at the gap timestamps: was there size at the levels around it?
- Compare the gap's levels to the pre-gap ladder to classify repriced vs missing.
- Treat near-resolve jumps (0.40 to 0.99) as settlement, not signal — recorded books show depth draining hours earlier.
- Measure gap frequency per market type to build filters; sports event books gap differently than five-minute crypto.
Practices
The workout
- From the books for a reprice window, find consecutive frames at 250ms with a price step larger than one tick; the gap list is your window's reprice signature.
- Record the biggest single-second gap you find; the maximum documented one-second move (0.044 to 0.996) is the extreme the ladder can produce.
- Check whether the gap coincided with a reference print: join the gap second to the futures level on the same UTC second (the same-second reset pattern).
- Build a small gap table (second, from, to, reference aligned?) for the window; the aligned versus unaligned shares are the gap taxonomy.
Deeper
The measured reality
A price gap is a jump between captured frames larger than the tick — the compression of the whole ladder in a single second on the extreme end, and the mid floor moving several ticks in a normal repricing.
The measured gaps divide cleanly into reference-aligned (the 14:42:50 second where the futures print and the floor met) and not-aligned (the residual drift), and the archive's exact timestamps are what makes the division possible.
When a gap aligns with a reference print on the same UTC second, it is discovery; when it does not, it is drift or illusion from a stale mid. Period and window boundaries belong in every gap report, because a gap without its boundary is un-reproducible by definition.
Gap studies also need a companion table of the frames before and after the jump: the last executable prices on both sides, the reference, and the second boundaries. With those four columns any reader can confirm the gap was real, aligned, and bounded.
Conclusion
The honest takeaway
A gap is real only if it is between executable prices; mid gaps on one-sided books are summaries, not trades.
Classify every gap by its reference alignment in the same second; aligned gaps are information, unaligned ones are drift.
The one-second 99.6-cent pass is the documented extreme, and the archive replays it frame by frame.
Where it fits
Place in the stack
Gaps are the reprice mechanism measured; this page pairs with the repricing-data page (the recorded cases) and the price-level page.
It gives the arb and order-flow pages their vocabulary: aligned versus non-aligned gaps.
The one-second 99.6-cent pass is its canonical example and it appears in the price-bounds and price-level explainers too.
Keep it simple
The takeaway in two sentences
A gap is real only between executable prices, and it is either reference-aligned or drift.
Classify by the second, and bookmark the 99.6-cent one-second pass as the max the ladder can produce.
FAQ
Are Polymarket chart gaps real moves?
Sometimes. A one-second full-ladder reprice is a real move; a mid jumping across an empty level is an artifact. The recorded book is what tells them apart.
What causes a 99.6-cent gap?
An empty book segment around the mid — no resting levels between distant bids and asks, usually during fast repricing or thin event books.
How do I avoid misreading gaps in backtests?
Replay against the book instead of the mid, and flag rows where spread or crossed states show the mid was not executable.