Polymarket rugby data: match pricing at 250ms

Rugby sits in the sports long tail — series Polymarket lists continuously but reports as long tail rather than counted splits — alongside cricket, motorsport, NBA, and MMA.

Its markets record identically to the counted families: full L2 books captured four times per second for every rugby series PolyOrderbooks lists, while the official API serves only the live, current-moment ladder.

Rugby match questions resolve to the same record as every other contract: bid and ask ladders with sizes, a captured_at timestamp, and the winning outcome once settled.

Because the rugby split is measured as long tail, this page quotes no rugby-specific count; the indicative family sizes live on the sports data page.

• Live ladder — official /book, free and keyless, current moment only (what the API serves).
• Historical depth — full L2 books at 250ms over REST, free Starter with 3 days, paid windows to 120 days.
• Discovery — /v1/series for rugby events; /v1/markets for questions and slugs.
• Coverage — measured counts per sport on the sports data page.

A test match settles over eighty minutes plus stoppage, and the winner market reprises on tries, not on the midfield flow. The official API keeps the live ladder for the fixture; the archive preserves the final ten minutes so the decisive score can be replayed with the exact executable side at its moment.

Rugby trades inside the 700k+ long tail beside cricket, motorsport, and the basketball families — series listed continuously and counted in the combined sports pool rather than a split of its own. Match questions close per fixture, with pool-stage and knockout rounds on different settling clocks.

The recorded patterns worth verifying include: whether a converted try inside the last ten minutes flips the winner marker or merely tightens it, whether first-half lines trade wider than the halves-market consensus, and whether bonus-point scenarios reprice season questions before the final whistle.

The routine pull — series and market endpoints for the fixture, archive window across the match — returns the full 250ms ladder for the deciding minutes, free to replay.

The closing ten minutes and the minute after a card are the volatility seams, with the executable side tied to the try-scoring clock.

As long-tail data, one match is a case study; a tournament round in one window is the minimum credible sample.

3 days free covers a test weekend; Pro widens to 120 and resolved fixtures stay queryable.

Study one: measure whether a converted try inside the final ten minutes flips the winner marker or merely tightens it, using the one-sided share as the ledger on every frame.

Study two: compare first-half lines with halves-market consensus to isolate where the executable side strays from the mid.

Study three: replay the minute after a card and count the reprise frames on the match winner; sub-second behavior is documented elsewhere on the venue.

One test weekend fits the 3-day Starter window; a full pool-stage round in Pro's 120 days is the scale for general claims.

Start with one decisive ten minutes: pull the final-window of a test match from the archive and count how many times a converted try produced a new executable price on the winner market. The last ten minutes plus stoppage is where the book actually does its work.

Then pull the first-half window of the same match and compare how much wider the early book trades; the half-to-half structure is the rugby market's cleanest signature.

Resolve the match and keep it queryable; one test weekend in the free window is the honest start, and a pool-stage round in Pro is the scale for general claims.

• Sports data
• Market data
• Order book data