Polymarket Binance Correlation Data

Polymarket's crypto Up/Down resolves against a reference price sourced from Binance-consolidated markets, so a Binance print should appear in the venue's book within one or two 250ms frames. The measured ETH case in the same-second reprice (0.815 to 0.065 within one printed second) proves the coupling is tight.

Correlation here is mechanical, not incidental: the venue prices the reference, and the record shows the lag distribution between reference print and venue book reprint.

The Aug-23 family event is the documented extreme: multiple coins collapsed together within 26 seconds on venue books as the reference moved — a cross-coin, cross-observation coupling that reads as a single correlated repricing cluster at 250ms.

For research, the reproducible measure is reprice-lag versus reference-print second on the shared UTC grid; the archive's latency and repricing series carry the inputs.

The linkage is real but bounded: the venue prices a reference, and arbitrage windows are what the lag distribution implies. A study should measure the lag and its variance (some minutes lag badly) rather than assert instant parity — the data supports the measurement, not the slogan.

• Cross-market data
• Reference price
• Latency data