News odds
Polymarket News Odds Data
"News odds" on Polymarket is the relationship between an event landing and the book reprinting — measurable because the record carries the second. This page covers what news-driven repricing looks like in the data and where to study it.
Figures measured as of 2026-09-24 on the published PolyOrderbooks archive.
The short answer
News is a reference event with a timestamp
On this venue, a news move is a reference print, a listing, a score, or an announcement with a UTC second — the tape and book shift within one or two 250ms frames, and the outcome column records who was right.
The measured corpus is the same one the repricing and final-seconds pages study: news lands in the data as a reprice event, not as a headline.
Study
Studying the reaction
Align the announcement second to the book: measure the reprint lag, the depth rotation, and the direction the executable side took. The archive's grid supplies the lag; the outcome column supplies the verdict — a complete news-study recipe in one join.
The honest trap is attribution: a book can move for structural reasons a moment before a headline, and a study that joins headline-to-second without the tape risks claiming a cause it cannot prove — the house rule on this site applies ('do not attach a cause without evidence').
Honest
The honest framing
News odds data is timing data: who repriced when, by how much, and with what consistency. The honest product is the lag and depth-delta series, not a prediction of the headline — the record supports the former and stays silent on the latter.
FAQ
How does news show up in Polymarket data?
As a reference print or event with a UTC second; the tape and book reprint within one or two 250ms frames.
How do I study the reaction?
Align the announcement to the grid and measure reprint lag, depth rotation, and direction — then verify against the outcome.
What is the attribution rule?
Do not attach a cause to a move without evidence; the tape and book must support the timestamp you claim.